Category: Bet Sizing

The beauty behind different bet sizing and what it accomplishes

The Value Bet – Common Mistakes

Posted on by Narciso Baldo

Value Bet

It is an art that is difficult to master. The value bet in poker is perhaps the most important skill to develop in order to become a long-term winner. It combines the complexity of hand reading, understanding of opponent and maximising value.

Beginner Texas Hold’em Question

What is a Value Bet in Poker?

A bet that is designed to get called by a weaker hand. The sizing is irrelevant, it’s purely betting for value, hence value bet. It is usually at the end of the hand on the river. Although it’s technically possible to value bet all in before the river.

Common Value Bet Mistakes

One of the most prevalent errors an inexperienced or unconfident player will make is check back hands on the river that warrant betting for value. They will check back hands for one of the three reasons listed below.

1)Fear of Being Check-Raised

The river check raise is such an uncommon play and rarely ever done on a bluff that it is not to be feared, to the extent most players afraid. It takes incredible patience for an opponent to make their hand on the river then check raise for value. Few expert players have the discipline and skill to employ this and fewer online. The typical online player will often just bet their nut hand on the river. They do this even if their opponent has bet all the way through, purely because they are worried you will check back.

2)Lacking Conviction

Many players who miss out on value are doing so because they lack conviction in their own ability to know their hand is best and assign a range to their opponent. This is because they don’t have the confidence in their own game or lack experience. Perhaps they have suffered too many bad beats or read some hands poorly and it has affected them. Perhaps they are on tilt. Whatever the reason, they lack the conviction to put in the value bet they rightly should.

3)Wanting a Cheap Showdown

Some players just want to show their hand down. They don’t recognise that they are missing out on lots of value in the long run. They are happy to check back on the river and show the winning hand. This is extremely detrimental to their long-term ROI and profitability as they are costing themselves money. I contend that many of these types of players even know they are checking back the better hand, but do so anyway. Don’t be one of these players.

How Much to Value Bet?

This is the key question you should be asking every time you are considering a value bet on the river. One needs to think what is the most amount of money or chips I can extract from my opponent. This is a complex question. It involves assuming the perfect and maximum amount your opponent will call, given their likely hand range. Ultimately you need to have good hand reading skills to do this. This will come with experience and over time will be second nature to you.

Value Betting Against Regulars

A pot sized bet gives poor pot odds; thus, a strong, experienced player is less inclined to call with a weak hand. Therefore, you you need to offer a good price.

Seasoned regulars have the ability to fold stronger hands so you need to either give them lucrative pot odds or be confident they will call a larger bet through levelling themselves.

Value Betting Against Weak Players

On the contrary, a weak and inexperienced may be happy to call a huge over bet. If you assign a weak player a strong range, they will almost certainly call whatever you bet. So, it makes sense to put in a large bet to get the most.

If your opponent is a stubborn calling station, you can value bet thinly. To protect yourself from value owning yourself, you can value bet like 20-25% of the pot. This will elicit the calls from weaker hands whilst also ensuring you don’t lose more than necessary for the times you’re just beat.

Correctly judging the amount within a few seconds may seem impossible, but it isn’t. Over time you will develop intuition, developed from playing many hands. You can always refer back to hands you played with poker tracking software. If you don’t have one setup, visit our poker resources page for our recommendations.

Conclusion

The importance of appropriate value betting can’t be stressed enough. A winning player needs to understand when and how much in order to extract the most possible. This article has discussed the reasons why people miss out on value and to avoid the common mistakes. To become proficient takes experience, thought and intuition.

To improve your value betting, why not read one of the articles below? Alternatively, check out our poker training services.

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Photo by Dmitry Demidko @wildbook
This article was originally published in January 2020 and has been updated.

Min Raise Poker – Pros and Cons

Posted on by Narciso Baldo

Min Raise Poker

Open raising the minimum gained popularity a few years ago. It is twinned with the small ball tournament poker strategy that gained fame through Daniel Negreanu. Whilst it’s an effective and popular strategy for tournaments, it is widely accepted to have little to no merit in cash games. This article will focus on the pros and cons of min raise poker in tournaments.

Pros of Min Raise Poker

Cheaper Bluffs

Open raising for the minimum allows you to pull off cheaper steals. It’s great taking down a pot with little to no resistance and bluffing for the minimum is even better isn’t it? By min raising you can sometimes steal the blinds with a poor hand and get away with the cheapest of bluffs.

Shorter Stacks – Accomplishes the Same as Big Betting

If you have played many tournaments you will know that a lot of is played with shorter stacks than cash games. It’s not uncommon to play an entire tournament with between 15 and 30 big blinds. Open raising the minimum can be just as effective as open raising for 3 big blinds so why would you risk more? It’s common sense to risk less.

It Still Gets Respect

When online poker was booming, min raise poker looked the weakest thing ever. This has not been the case for a long time. People don’t perceive a min raise as weakness anymore. On the contrary, it can be seen as inviting action, particularly from early position.

More Poker Playing

Open raising double the blinds allows you to play more poker. It stands to reason if you are open raising 2 big blinds instead of 4 than you are going to be playing for smaller pots and have the potential to be involved more. This is definitely a pro if you are a better player than most at your table. After all, you want to play more hands with weaker players, right?

There’s Less Variance

The min raise poker style is likely to yield less variance in tournaments. Why? Well think about it, if you are min raising and playing more pots post flop, you are less likely to be involved in all in or fold mode. You are adopting a style that is risking little, not open raising for large % of your stack and committing your tournament life.

Cons of Min Raise Poker

More Multi-way Pots

Unfortunately, you can expect to play fewer pots heads up if you are min raising. You may think this is ok but mathematically speaking, the players involved, the lower your chances of winning the pot. It’s easier to knock one player our or have the better hand than 3 isn’t it? Multiway pots aren’t ideal, particularly if you are playing shorter stacks.

Opponents Can 3 Bet Cheaper (and lighter?)

This is anecdotal but I believe it to be true from my own experience. It’s true on the best bitcoin poker sites and real money poker sites. In many games, players are more inclined to 3 bet a min raise than a standard open. They know their 3 bet is costing them less. Consider the example below:

Open raise size at 500/1,000How much does it cost your opponent to 3 bet?
3,0008,000 – 9,000
2,0005,000 – 6,000

Consider, in the scenario above you are raising from early position. Your opponent thinks you’re weak and wants to 3 bet you. If the raise is 3,000, he knows it will cost at least 8,000 and may be put off. An opponent will be more inclined to 3 bet if he knows it can be achieved for 5,000 or 6,000.

It Gives the Big Blind Great Odds

Any poker player with sense will defend their big blind very wide against a min raise. This is especially true when there are antes. This is not a con for me personally – I want to play poker heads up in position. However, you are helping them play better, inviting them in with a very wide range of hands that can outdraw yours. It’s generally not a great idea to give good pot odds to your opponents. You want to force mistakes and min bets rarely accomplish this.

More Pots Out of Position

In a full ring game, min raises from early or middle position will often find you playing poker against someone in late position. This is far from ideal as you will be acting before them every round post flop. Decision making needs to be impeccable to turn a good win rate post flop when you’re playing with fewer chips than cash games. The truth is, min raises often get called by competent players in the cut-off or on the button.

Final Thoughts

As you can see, there are reasonable arguments for and against the min raise in poker. If you are thinking about adopting this style, please make sure you are consistent. There is no use min raising with weak and making it 4x with pocket kings. Even the most basic of players will pick up on this transparency. Instead, be consistent and committed to the style. Ensure you are not adopting a min bet style post flop as the two are widely different.

Poker Bet Sizing Correctly is Everything

Posted on by Narciso Baldo

Poker Bet Sizing

How much thought do you give to the bets you make when playing poker? It’s not a trick question. Effectively sizing your bets is everything when it comes to playing for the long run. Most online poker sites offer automatic buttons like 50% pot, 75% and full pot, but players often just click any and are not giving enough consideration to board texture, number of opponents and relative hand strength. This article will highlight and explain why accurate poker bet sizing is important to your ability to earn lots of money both online and in casinos.  

What Does Good Poker Bet Sizing Do?

Forces Errors

Whilst the small ball style of poker has been popularised in recent years, it does fail to enforce mathematical errors from your opponents. Consider a wet board texture. This type of flop requires a large sized bet to make your opponent pay to outdraw. Anything less than 70% of the pot is unlikely to get a fold nor is it mathematically correct. Any time you are betting 50% of the pot, you are giving your opponent fantastic pot odds. They only need 25% equity in the hand to continue. Put another way, any time you size your bet too small, you are losing money. Even if you win the actual pot, you are making a mistake, allowing your opponent to play correctly and losing yourself money, in the long run. Good poker bet sizing strategy makes your opponent’s make mistakes.

Gets Value

Bet sizing properly doesn’t just mean betting big. It may also mean, putting in that sweet sized bet that gets you paid. Consider a hand where you are betting every street with top set. You get to the river and are automatically reaching for the ¾ pot bet, hoping to get paid. Is that the right bet though? With reasonable estimation, you can predict how often this bet will get paid by a certain player and weight it against a smaller bet. If a bet of $100 gets called 20% of the time and a bet of $50 gets paid 100% of the time – clearly the latter is the correct bet as you are making more money in the long run ($50 x 100% vs 20% X $100). The value of the bet is worth $50 vs $20. Are you beginning to see how important bet sizing is?

Continuation Bet Sizing

Bet SizeBoard Type
25% (1/4 of Pot)The driest of boards e.g. 3-3-9 rainbow
33% (1/3 of Pot)Dry rainbow flops e.g. Q-7-3 rainbow
50% (1/2 of Pot)Mixed flop type e.g. K-9-6 rainbow
75% (3/4 of Pot)Suited and connected e.g. Js Ts 4d
100% (Full Pot)Wettest of flops e.g. Td 8d 9c
Overbet Those special occasions you know you’re getting called and you have monster or conversely you know an overbet bluff will work as your opponent can’t have “it”.

Beginner Texas Hold’em Question

Does Bet Sizing in Poker Tournaments Change?

We need to make exceptions to tournament poker. This is especially true for online poker tournaments that have shorter stacks and quicker blind levels. Generally, you can size your bets smaller in tournaments. It is better poker bet sizing strategy to risk less of your chips, as a bigger bet will often accomplish the same as a smaller one.

Open Raises in Cash Games vs Tournaments

Cash GamesYou should open raise between 3 and 4 big blinds in a cash game. You can raise even more if the game is wild and you want to thin the field out. For each limper, add an extra big blind to your raise.
TournamentsIf you are a member of poker training video membership (see banner below), you will know I opt for a min raise from early position, 2.2x the blinds from middle and 2.5 x the big blind from late position. The reason is simple – I want to play bigger pots when I have position advantage. Add an extra big blind for each fishy limper.

Perceptions of different bet sizes

Small Bet

A small bet used to be a sign of weakness when perceived from a strong player. Poker has evolved though and this is less the case these days. Strong players will no longer assume you have air. They will still throw in the occasional re-raise or poker float to test you but I am noticing a lot of pro’s folding for cheap flop bets.
Awful player’s don’t really think much about what you have and likely perceive it as a weak hand, if anything. it won’t dissuade them from continuing in the pot.

Standard Bet

The standard open and standard 1/2 pot bets are generally considered “usual” by strong players. They will look at the board texture and whether it marries up with your range of hands. This will guide their judgement on what cards you have.
The weaker players are more likely to give some credit for a hand when they see the standard opens and bets. They will probably assign you a top pair type hand but not much better. Again though, the fishes are not really thinking too much about what you have.

Large Bet

Intermediate players and even some experts will make incorrectly assume you are super strong or super weak when they see a large bet. They will polarise your range. This is one thing that makes professionals exploitable, if you can balance big bets with hands that aren’t bluffs or the nuts.
Weak players will usually pause for thought and think you have a strong hand but call anyway if they have a top pair or better hand. That’s why grinder’s don’t care if they pot bet for value on the river. They know the fish will call it.

One of the best things about poker is the freedom you have to choose your bets. Don’t waste it! Sizing your bets accurately is arguably the most important thing that separates winners and losers.

What are the Consequences of Poorly Sized Bets?

The consequences of sizing your bets poorly can’t be understated. If you’re one of the many players prone to auto-betting the same %, you need to stop and reflect on your game. Miscalculating your bets will the following:

  • Getting outdrawn more often
  • Less successful bluffs
  • Less value from premium hands
  • Lower hourly win rate
  • Less tournament cashes and final tables
  • More perceived “bad beats”
  • More multi-way pots – less chance of winning

Conclusion

In order to earn money from poker, you will need to have a solid grasp of bet sizing. You can skirt by and win a little if you’re in fishy games and know about other things, but it won’t cut it in other games. Perhaps you have no interest in bet sizing and just want to gamble. That’s fine, there are plenty of casino sign up bonuses available online that give you the chance to make money and entertain you too. This article is merely a guide on poker bet sizing. The intricacies of how much to bet on the turn to force a bad call from a flush draw or to thinly value bet 3rd pair is just as important. If you are interested in learning more about bet sizing, feel free to contact us below and sign up to our email list.

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Does Big Bet Poker Work?

Posted on by Narciso Baldo

Big Bet Poker

This term conjures up differing meanings to different people. Big bet poker is effectively the opposite of small ball poker. The ethos of attacking lots of pots with small bets in small ball is flipped the other way with big bet poker. Instead of making probing bets of 40-50% of the pot, you are making bets of 80% or more of the pot and over-bets of the pots. The great thing about big bet poker is that you are often forcing your opponent to decide for a high percentage of their tournament stack or their cash due to the inherent nature of the bet sizing.  

What are the Benefits of Big Bet Poker?

I believe betting large amounts confuses most opponents and leads them to be in awkward spots. In today’s poker world, it is not a common strategy and they do not know how to react. When a player is confused or unsure, they are prone to making errors. I have seen this firsthand on the best poker sites. They will usually resort to one of two ways to counter big betting:

Play it Too Safe

Players will opt to get out of the hand, play it careful and look for a spot to trap you in the future. They know their strategy and will patiently wait for that spot to come, hoping you will make a big error yourself and pay them off. They may say to themselves “I don’t know if he has it this time, I can find a better spot against this donkey”.

Go Over The Top

Opponents will decide that they refuse to be bullied around and will commit, often with a medium strength hand or weaker in a desperate attempt to not get outplayed. Many players hate the idea of getting outplayed and will do reckless moves themselves convincing themselves with “he can’t always have it, if he has me beat here, good luck to him”.

Big Bet Poker
Image by Markus Spiske

The good news is both reactive strategies work in the favour of the big bettor. If they fold, great, winning a pot without showdown is fine. Should they go over the top of you then you are happy too. You have forced them into playing how they don’t wish to. If you have the hand, you are paid off and if you don’t then you can fold and move on to the next hand. Either way, you can be happy.

What are the Downsides to Big Bet Poker?

As with any strategy, there are pros and cons. There is no 100% perfect poker strategy out there. With big bet poker, you are increasing the variance aspect. If you are consistently playing bigger pots than you otherwise need to, you are increasing the variance. This is contrary to what many professionals are trying to achieve. The more skilled you are, the less variance you generally want. The other drawback is that whilst you can expect people to fold to you more often, you are potentially losing action from weak hands that may otherwise flat call a flop or turn bet. It also means you are not playing an optimal bet sizing strategy. Naturally, betting big will force players into mistakes from a pot odds perspective vis a vis draws, but there is a line where you can force an error and increase the likelihood of getting a flop or turn call.

What About Fixed Limit Holdem?

As previously stated, the term “big bet” will mean different things to people. Big bet actually means the turn and river bet in fixed limit holdem. In limit Texas Hold’em, the pre flop and flop betting is usually 50% of the turn and river bet size, hence the term “big bet”.

Final Thoughts

Big bet poker is a strategy that can work, if honed properly. This may seem surprising but consider the make-up of most games today. Poker is evolving and players are trying to replicate what professionals are doing. You need to think of innovative ways to exploit their tendencies and behaviours. Big bet poker is certainly one way to achieve this. Obviously, you can’t be crazily wild and entering every pot and expect to in. But with well-timed and calculated betting, you may be able to find a unique way of playing that makes you money. A word of caution to beginners, this strategy should only be attempted by those with experience. It requires an astute poker mind to pull it off, otherwise you will waste tournament chips or money.

Do you have any questions about big bet poker strategy? Why not ask us? Your question may appear in our blog.

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Is The Over-Bet Underused in Poker?

Posted on by Narciso Baldo

The Over-Bet

Depending on the situation, an over bet is either an awful play or a genius one. There is not much in between, from a 3rd party perspective. This is because an over bet will force your opponent out of the pot (either lost value or a great bluff) or you’ve been called (lost far more than necessary or got extra value).

The truth is, there are scenarios where an over bet is the most profitable bet to make and also the worst bet to make. Deciding when to pull off a successful over-bet takes experience, intuition and thorough of understanding your opponent.

The Bluff Over-Bet

In order to pull off a success bluff, sometimes you have to bet big. With the right opponent (conservative) and deep stacks, an over bet bluff can be a great weapon to use. Whilst this same player may call 60-80% of the pot, they will often fold to an over- bet shove or double pot bet. They know they are not getting a good price on their money and will look for a more sensible hand to invest in. The over bet bluff is usually best to try on the river when there are no more cards to come. 

You need a few things to be on your side for an over- bet bluff to be successful:

An opponent who has the ability to fold

The overbet works best against players you’ve seen fold in the past. If you’ve seen your opponent fold on the river to bets before, they have demonstrated they can release if they think it’s best. It’s no using trying to push around a calling station.

When stacks are deep

An overbet bluff needs players to have deep stacks. If you’ve bet your hand all the way down and you’re overbet is less than a pot bet, it’s not an overbet is it? Please make sure you and your opponent have plenty of chips behind. If they’re deep stacked, they are more likely to be protective than if they’re short stacked and pot committed.

You haven’t shown down an overbet bluff

This is an important thing to remember. If you have tried the overbet bluff and got called, your opponent(s) will remember this. They’ll be wary of your move and be more inclined to call you down. Avoid doing this bluff if it hasn’t worked earlier in the session.

The Value Over-Bet

This value bet is not utilised enough really. I am guilty myself and don’t use this move often enough. I think many people think they will waste value and prefer to get something than nothing. So they will typically just put in a decent value bet like 60-80% of the pot.

It’s a great move to pull off against fishy players who can’t fold a medium strength hand or advanced players who are prone to making a hero call or levelling themselves.

Fishy Opponents (Calling Stations)

Value betting is about getting the maximum out of any hand. Why waste potential value against players that are just as likely to call an overbet as a smaller bet? These players truly don’t care if you bet double the pot so make them pay!

You showed an overbet bluff

Following on from earlier in the article, you can use history to your advantage. If you tried to overbet bluff and got called, use it to your benefit next time. Your opponents will be itching to call you so go easy on the overbet bluff and use the overbet value bet as a counter strategy.

Competent players (level them)

Capable, thinking players will shock you. Sometimes, they level themselves in the face of an overbet. They almost pay just to satisfy their curiosity. If your opponent is the type to think long and hard, he may just pay you off.

Deep Stacks

Like the bluff, deep stacks are required for overbet value bets. You and your opponents need to have at least 50% more than the pot to make it an overbet.

Caution

Like most poker moves, this is not one to be constantly used against the same players. In fact, against a decent player, you can probably only get away with 2-3 successful over bet bluffs or value over bets before they’ve figured which you use it for. The trick is to master both.

I recommend attempting both in the future when your instinct tells you it will work. Once you have dipped your toe in you will soon incorporating both bets into your game in the future.

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Pot Control

Posted on by Narciso Baldo

This is a concept that is lost on beginners and even some intermediate poker players. Pot control is about dictating the pot size, or trying to, on your terms. This is achieved by the sizing of your bets and relative position in the hand.

What is Pot Control?

It is manipulating the pot size how you wish, factoring in relative hand strength, stack size and opposition in the hand. Never has “big hand, big pot, small hand, small pot” been more relevant. Pot controlling is understanding that there are multiple rounds of poker, and with each round a decision to be made that will increase the pot size, how much is dependent on the sizing of yours and your opponent’s bets.

Playing in position makes pot control far easier as you are closing the action and it is common for players to check out of position. This allows you to dictate how a hand and pot will flow.

Flop Play

Quite often there are multiple people in the hand at this point and controlling the pot isn’t particularly easy. Your ability to understand relative hand strength will be critical as will your position in the hand.
This is where small ball is useful. Small ball is a style of poker that involves making a lot of probing bets. This accomplishes several things; eliminating players from a pot, narrowing hand ranges, keeping the pot manageable, obtaining value and winning the pot inexpensively.

Turn Play

It’s been said for years that the turn is the most important round of betting in Texas holdem. Professional poker players recognize that this is where the hand has almost reached conclusion, there is just one card left to deal (making pot odds and math even more important). The turn is the round where a player will often make a decision ahead of the river.

Intuitively you are often thinking one of a few things on the turn card. Let’s take a look at them:

“I have the best hand and want to build the pot for value and protect my hand”

In this situation, you will typically be looking to bet for value and protection. This usually involves a decent sized bet to enforce a mathematical error on your opponent’s part whilst increasing the pot for value too.

“I am on a draw and want to see the river cheaply”

In this instance, out of position, you are at the mercy of those in position. However, in position, you have the option of semi bluffing when checked to or taking the free card. A luxury not afforded to you out of position.

“I am not 100% sure I have the best hand and want to see the river cheaply or showdown my hand”

This will usually mean checking or betting small. This is a great tactic to employ when your opponent plays ball i.e. doesn’t raise. By betting small you can often get a check on the river and show your hand down, conversely checking back turn cards often means you can bluff catch cheaply on the river too.

Conclusion on Pot Control

Pot control is a key concept to understand and put into practice. You are quite often employing pot control without thinking about it so it is partly intuitive but also considered and methodical.

It is important to avoid being predictable with your lines in hands as well though. Please remember to have variety to the lines you take, particularly when you are facing strong players. 

The underlying theme behind pot control is that you are doing your utmost to control the size of pot how you wish; this is accomplished by playing more pots in position and also understanding how to size your bets appropriately. Please contact us if you need help with bet sizing or more information on pot control by filling in the form below. Texas Hold’em Questions are happy to help.

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