Maths Archives - Texas Holdem Questions

Inside Straight Draws? You May Aswell Burn Your Money

Posted on June 22, 2020June 22, 2020 by Narciso Baldo

Inside Straight

Otherwise known as the gut-shot straight, an inside straight is one of the most improbable hands you can make in Texas Hold’em. As a beginner you may chase these on occasion thinking you will get a big payoff but will you and how often will you hit your insight straight?

Beginner Texas Hold’em Question

What is an Inside Straight?

An inside straight is where you have 4 of the 5 cards needed for a completed straight. You have to hit one card to make your straight, unlike the more favourable open-ended straight which has 2 ways to make a straight.

Example Hand

There are 2 limpers to you and you complete from the small blind with Kc 8c. The flop comes 7s 6s 4d. Everyone checks to the button who bets out 75% of the pot. You need a 5 to make your straight. This is an inside straight draw as you only have 1 card to make your hand.

What are the Odds of Making an Inside Straight Draw?

With 4 outs to an inside straight, you have approximately 16% of making it from the flop. You have just 8% of making it from the turn to the river. Very few poker hands play out that afford you such lucrative pot odds. There are some scenarios where you may have additional outs with an over-card e.g. A-J on a K-T-2 flop. The ace may be good if you hit it but for the purposes of this article, we are only focusing on the insight straight.

Most Famous Pot

There was an episode on High Stakes poker that involved a massive pot of $743,800 with Patrik Antonious and Jamie Gold. Patrik called a 3 bet with ace jack. He check called a flop bet on Q-T-X and proceeded to turn the nuts against Jamie’s pocket kings. This is a rare spot where he had amazing implied odds, as demonstrated by the fact Jamie Gold moved all in on the turn. Anyway, enough of the commentary, have a look for yourself below for one of the largest ever pots for an insight straight. Note – Patrik lose 2/3 of the pots when they ran it 3 times.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, hitting your inside straight is very unlikely. You need to consider will your opponent even pay you off? You also need to think about whether you are even drawing to the nut hand. If you are and you’re facing a minimum bet, perhaps you can afford to peel one, but if not, get out of the pot.

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Running Bad in Poker – How to Handle it

Posted on June 9, 2020June 8, 2020 by Narciso Baldo

Running Bad in Poker

Play enough and you will experience it. A bad run happens to us all, particularly online. It’s probability maths 101. If you haven’t experienced running bad in poker, you’ve not played enough or you’re very lucky. Running bad can come in different was, you might be getting it in on the flop with a set and lose to 2 outs or you might be getting pocket kings and facing pocket aces too much. Rather than just say “that’s poker”, this article will attempt to offer some solutions and advice on how to handle running bad in poker.

Review Results

One way to deal with running bad in poker is review your results over the last 3 – 6 months. If you’ve been doing well and continued to play consistently, take comfort that you are doing the right thing. Sometimes you can doubt your game and what you’re doing when you are on a bad run. I find it reassuring to know that I am a winning player and reviewing your results is testament to this. Remember, winning poker is about the long run. You’re not defined by the bad run you’re on so keep calm and carry on.

Take a Small Break

I’d like to emphasize “small” break. Don’t go away for weeks or months because you’re losing. If you’ve been playing well and its bad luck, then it’s good to take a break for a few days. If you feel the need to gamble still, try roulette or black for some fun. Look around and find the best casino online in USA and have a flutter. Don’t gamble too much though! Come back fresh and ready to play poker. Obviously if you’re tilt prone and running bad was affecting your game, feel free to take a longer break and keep your mind off poker playing for a little while.

Tighten Up

This is a contentious one but I think it has some merit still. If you’re game has evolved to a very fancy and bluffy style, it might be worth reverting back to a more solid approach. This will serve to reduce the variance element; ensure you are getting your money in better and have less of an impact on your bankroll. Don’t go too tight though – if your game has largely stayed the same as when you were winning, it would be foolish to radically change a winning approach.

Beginner Texas Hold’em Question

Why am I running bad in poker?

Poker has an element of luck you can’t escape. You signed up to it the day you chose to play poker. One can’t complain too much when you win a tournament then go on a bad run after. You might be on a bad run because you’re playing bad too. Anytime you think you’re running bad, punch in the stats of a hand into a poker hand calculator and see how far ahead you actually were.

Poker Excel Dashboard – Do You Have One?

Posted on May 17, 2020May 25, 2020 by Narciso Baldo

Poker Excel Spreadsheets

What’s your spreadsheet skills like? Have you thought to mix poker and Excel yet? I’m a massive fan of spreadsheets, data, reporting and good record keeping so combining the two was natural for me. The great thing about utilising spreadsheets for poker is it provides you with insights you wouldn’t have known otherwise. You’re the creator and can customise your tables and graphs how you wish.

Facts Don’t Lie

The great thing about data is that it’s factual, unbiased and truth. Fact’s don’t lie and it’s there, in your face. It forces you to confront areas you didn’t want to before because it’s easier to ignore them. Let’s say you start record keeping your cash game sessions through poker excel spreadsheets and you find out over a year that you lose money on Monday nights. This may be painful to you because you’re off on Tuesdays and like playing in the one available game that lets you play at a convenient time for you. What will you do with this information? Will you stop playing that game now or not? Spreadsheets are great in this way as it’s not anecdotal or hear say information, it will provide useful, relevant facts.

Garbage in Garbage out

If you are keen to start having a poker excel spreadsheet, there are some rules you need to adhere to, otherwise it’s a pointless activity. You may have heard the saying that reporting can be only as good as the accuracy of the data input i.e. if you put garbage in, you’ll get garbage out. Here are some basic fundamental rules if you are considering a poker excel spreadsheet.

Enter data accurately
Don’t get too excited or too downbeat by short-term results
Don’t keep cancelling and starting again
Stick with it

Texas Hold’em Questions Poker Excel Dashboard

I appreciate not everyone is an excel wizard. Perhaps you’re interested in improving your record keeping, monitoring your win rate and finding out your “niche” in poker but don’t have a knack for spreadsheets. Fortunately, we are highly proficient in excel and can help you. I use it all the time with the players I mentor. It’s a fantastic way to track performance on a regular basis. At a glance of a graph, I can tell if John Doe is winning this month, whether he’s up year on year and which game is his strongest. These insights help decision making moving forward. If this is something you potentially want, we can certainly help you. If you’re interested in a stand-alone product of poker excel dashboard reporting or just the start-up excel sheet and you input figures – we can help you. Just fill in the form below and I will get back to you with options and pricing. See some snapshots below for an idea of what the dashboard and graphs can look like.

We can quickly see John started well in January and has been on a decline since. Do you track your monthly winnings efficiently and compare against previous months?

See how John wins in the morning/daytime but loses at night? If there is a lot of data and volume, he may need to consider playing only playing during day time. Do you monitor whether you play better during day or night?

John wins at NL $50 and $100 and a loser NL $200. At a glance, he should focus on NL $50. Do you track your performance at different stakes?

Are you interested in having a poker excel dashboard? Get in touch below and we will get back to you soon.

Are You Set Mining Correctly in Poker?

Posted on April 7, 2020May 17, 2020 by Narciso Baldo

What is Set Mining Poker?

Set mining poker is a term that describes calling a raise before the flop with the intention of hitting a set or three of a kind on the flop a win a big pot.

Odds

The chances of flopping a set with a pocket pair are quite remote. You will flop a set approximately 1 in 7.5. In other words, you will hit three of a kind almost 1 in 8 times you try. That is not very often is it? Moreover, when you do hit your set, you won’t always get paid off, as you hope.

Implied Odds

This is the phrase poker players love to use to describe a situation where they are making a call because they anticipate a large pay off if they make their hand. This is the reason you see Daniel Negreanu calling raises with three five suited. He doesn’t mind calling 2 and half big blinds in the hope of winning 200 from a weak player who is prone to overplaying top pair or overpair type hands. The thing you need to consider when set mining is the stack your opponent has behind them, their tendencies, hand strength and realistic likelihood of getting their stack.

set mining poker — Photo by Bart Van Dijk

What are the Considerations?

Opponent

If your opponent is likely to have a tight range and a premium hand, your chances of getting paid are higher. Conversely, facing a player who opens lots of pots and plays well post flop, you can’t assume you will get paid off quite as easy or for the same value.

Table Image

If you have a tight image, you don’t have the same implied odds necessarily as a looser image. This is because your check raises and big bets command more respect and have gravitas.

Position

Set mining out of position is not easy. You may try for a check raise and miss a street of value when they check back and you are not closing action so it’s hard to manipulate the pot size as you can in position.

Tips

Set mining is great against donkeys, pay off wizards, nits and with deep stacks. There are plenty of these types in any online casino Singapore. To set mine profitably, consider the amount you are calling before the flop, multiply it by 8 and if your opponent has that or more and you’ve factored in the considerations above, make the call and good luck!

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Pot Odds – The Easy to Understand Basics

Posted on March 5, 2020July 2, 2020 by Narciso Baldo

What are Pot Odds?

You have probably heard of pot odds but maybe you’re not sure what they are or how to calculate them? Don’t worry, everyone has been there. Basically, pot odds are the comparison of the cost of making a call compared to the size of the pot. It is usually expressed as a ratio; however, the far more valuable tool is the conversion of ratio to percentage.

How to Calculate Pot Odds?

Pot Size Versus Amount to Call = Pot Odds as Ratio
$100: $10 or 10:1
I think it is more valuable to see this as a percentage. To convert this, we simply add the pot size and the amount to call and divide the amount to call by the pot size. Using the example above, it would be:

$100 + $10 = $110
$10 / $110 = 9%

What is the Point?

Understanding the maths is very important to being a long-term winner at poker. Decision making is often based on the maths aspect, is a call profitable? Are they bluffing often enough? etc. In order to use pot odds effectively, a poker player combines the context of the situation with the odds at hand. It also allows one to manipulate the pot odds and enforce errors on the part of your opponents – a key skill requirement.
Let’s look at an example of how pot odds could be used for important decision making.

Example Hand

With a pot size of $50 and one card to come. Player A has a flush draw holding Kc 10c on a board of Ac 8c 2s 4s. Player B has Ad 8d with top two pair and is considering how much to bet. By betting $30, the pot will be $80 and Player A will be getting $30 for a pot of $110. Using the method above, we can see this can be converted to represent 27%. With a flush draw and one card to come we know there is approximately 18% chance of Player A making the best hand, thus, the bet enforces an error on the part of player A as Player A is not getting a sufficient price to make the call.
On the other hand, if Player B bets $10, Player A will have 16.6% and a turn call becomes profitable.

Conclusion

As we can see from the above example, pot odds can influence decision making and affect your long-term profitability. They should be used in combination with your hand reading, context and implied odds (look out for future article on implied odds). One of the great things about poker is you are in control of your decisions. By understanding odds and relative hand strength, you can learn to manipulate pot sizes (something not possible with slot odds) how you want to and enforce mistakes from opponents.

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